Question for our Irish friends on Diaspora: Now that we have clearly seen, during the past couple of years, that there is much solidarity between the EU, the EU members and Ireland, will Ireland be changing to driving on the right side of the road, like your friends from the even more Eastern continent do?
After all, the influence by your Eastern neighbours will be diminished after March 29, and the production in the UK of right-hand drive cars will probably be decimated in a couple of years.
Would that not be a wonderful display of true and heartfelt solidarity and friendship between Ireland and the rest of us in the EU? Plus it would probably make importing cars easier, and hence cheaper, because you would no longer need cars right-hand drive cars. Just asking
For all of us on the continent, did you know a ferry ticket from Cherbourg in France to Dublin is only a little over 100 euro’s pp and for just a little bit extra you can bring your car too? Disclaimer: I have no relations with Irish ferries whatsoever; I am not even a client (yet).
I did not know that, but now that I do, I am tempted. I have never visited Ireland before (blush), but this sounds interesting. A vacation in Normandy in France (that’s where Cherbourg is), to be combined with a week in Dublin, sounds interesting.
Meh, detail details Please do not take my post seriously, because I was do not believe for one second the Irish would even consider my suggestion. I was trying to be ironic. Except for the 'visit Ireland' part. That is actually a good idea, I think, but that ferry line has existed for many years. I just did not know about it.
The cars built in Japan come with a 10% tariff under the WTO rules, by the way.
Personally, my bet of the moment is that there will be no Brexit, but I have not yet completely convinced myself. Finally, it seems that some sense starts to get into parliament: I believe a majority against no-deal seems to form. That leaves May's deal (unlikely) or no-Brexit (which is what she actually wanted from the start) as the only options.
In the mean time, there is a growing majority in the population against Brexit, so I would not be surprised if the result would be a no-Brexit after an extension until, say June. What do you think @Alan Cox? Is that wishful thinking?
No, since the Japan - EU trade deal cars are tariff free now. One of the reasons why several of the Japanese car companies are not investing in the UK and/or pulling back manufacturing to Japan. No tariffs when they ship from Japan to the EU, but lots of uncertainty and potential tariffs about cars made in the UK. But as Ireland remains in the EU....
My original guess back when this started was that something like Gibraltar would screw the entire thing.
There seem to be several scenarios
Politicians carry on fighting each other and a non deal exit happens
The UK manages to agree something and Spain screws it up (which btw is considered the ideal scenario by a lot of the leavers, because everything will then be blamed upon Spain and the EU)
A delay until June or so whilst everyone stops pretending there will be a deal and frantically puts in place all the no deal agreements the EU refused to talk about in advance.
We end up with some kind of longer delay (referendum/general election), or the EU refuses the delay and the UK retaliates by rescinding notification and then filing it again, in which case the whole shitpile continues for another 2 years.
Delays are tricky though. If the UK is still in the EU at the point of the next EU elections and the UK did not take part in the upcoming EU elections then the entire EU suffers a total catastrophic constitutional meltdown.
My current guess is that the UK will fail to agree anything at all even internally and Spain will screw up the EU agreeing to it either
Time is running. I fear there will be no solution. Especially as the EU has made it very clear that there will be either the current negotiated deal or nothing. Financial Times provides a good overview of all the Brexit stuff http://hastheuklefttheeuyet.com/
Except for that no 4 is almost certainly not going to happen. I don't have the exact details to hand, but as far as I can remember the legal ruling about revoking the article 50 notification had something along the lines of it having to be a real revocation, not just a means to buy time.
@Armin Grewe "…must, first, be submitted in writing to the European Council and, secondly, be unequivocal and unconditional, that is to say that the purpose of that revocation is to confirm the EU membership of the Member State concerned under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a Member State, and that revocation brings the withdrawal procedure to an end."
Which as various lawyers have pointed out isn't really going to make any difference because it's not hard for the UK to withdraw in good faith and then start again in good faith. The likely scenarios being either a general election (parliament forces a withdrawal, there is an election or a change of control and the new government starts again, or a referendum where 'no deal' wins). If the polling data is right then a referendum would almost certainly bury brexit, but an election would be anyone's guess because representing the views of the people doesn't feature highly in our political process.
Also it's the constitutional equivalent of chancing a nuclear war because if the EU commission rejected the withdrawal and the EU courts then ruled against it then nothing that the commission or parliament decided whilst the UK was excluded would be validly created law or a valid treaty and so on ... ugly to say the least.
@Christoph S, I do not believe it is true that the EU refuses to negotiate a different deal. They have not said that. What they have said is that the deal is not open for renegotiation if the UK does not change any of its 'red lines'.
If the UK does, a new situation occurs. However, until now there has been no indication of what red lines could be shifted that would be supported by majority in the UK parliament. There is no majority for anything, at the moment, so what is the EU supposed to do about that? Nothing they can do. I completely agree that under the current red lines the deal on the table is the best possible compromise and is not negotiable.
@mfierst The EU refused to negotiate the post leave stuff without a transition agreement first. That was always likely to fail to be agreed. So the EU is much to blame for the fallout in trying to use that as a negotiating lever.
Had they not done that the EU would be in much less of a mess about what happens on brexit day if we crash out.
@mfierst there is a vast amount of running arround making contingency plans happening on both sides because the fallout hits both. Everything from airspace to electricity supply. The business fallout hits both sides too - a no deal is really bad news for German carmakers for example.